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Muller Recruiting Summary

The place to talk Redbird Men's Basketball
Redbird222
Senior
Posts: 967
Joined: Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:33 pm

Fri Feb 21, 2020 9:34 am

There is always conversation about recruiting and retention of recruits so I created a summary. This was compiled manually which is prone to errors - you have been forewarned. I leave it up to you for your interpretations.

Here are a few points of clarification

1. I excluded walk-on players from the summary including those that received temporary scholarships
2. The top half has rosters by year. A box around a player means they left ISU with remaining eligibility
A. Black box represents players that transferred
B. Gold box represents players dismissed (I included Clayton which may or may not be correct)
C. Red box represents players left to purse professional career
3. Middle section has summary - note far right I excluded Jank recruits
4. "% Excluding 19-20 recruits" - excludes this years recruits since they have not had chance to leave
5. Bottom breaks Muller recruits into three categories - freshman, Juco transfer and DI transfer

I am attaching a file - hopefully this works. Let me know if you need any further clarifications.
Muller Recruiting Summary.png
Muller Recruiting Summary.png (38.36 KiB) Viewed 1440 times
Hrtnfldhse
Freshman
Posts: 131
Joined: Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:06 pm

Fri Feb 21, 2020 9:42 am

I wonder how the recruiting %'s compare to other MVC coaches or even all D-1 coaches. Also I wonder how many 4 year players Muller has had, I count 3 (Lee, Hawkins, and McIntosh) which coincidentally were all on Muller's best team.
Redbird222
Senior
Posts: 967
Joined: Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:33 pm

Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:02 am

Hrtnfldhse wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 9:42 am
I wonder how the recruiting %'s compare to other MVC coaches or even all D-1 coaches. Also I wonder how many 4 year players Muller has had, I count 3 (Lee, Hawkins, and McIntosh) which coincidentally were all on Muller's best team.
Add Wills to 4 year and on his best team. Hein & Evans were also here for 4 years.
Trey_Guidry4three
Junior
Posts: 561
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:51 pm

Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:13 am

Not a good resume. And to think Lee also wanted to leave is scary. There has been no true 4 year players that are worth noting. (Not many to pick from either).
DWRedbird
Junior
Posts: 675
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:37 pm

Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:23 am

Trey_Guidry4three wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:13 am
Not a good resume. And to think Lee also wanted to leave is scary. There has been no true 4 year players that are worth noting. (Not many to pick from either).
Other than Paris Lee?
Morans14
Sophomore
Posts: 223
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:35 pm

Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:24 am

Trey_Guidry4three wrote:Not a good resume. And to think Lee also wanted to leave is scary. There has been no true 4 year players that are worth noting. (Not many to pick from either).
But you put Paris Lee in the category of a true 4 year player worth noting. Correct? POY and DPOY his senior year would certainly qualify in my eyes.


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Birdman85
Freshman
Posts: 169
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2017 2:34 pm

Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:42 am

https://247sports.com/Article/Baylor-Ka ... 144087708/

Good article to add to the discussion. Scott Drew and Baylor's roster building philosophies.
Redbird60451
Freshman
Posts: 68
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:22 pm
Location: New Lenox

Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:52 am

So I count 56 names on the list. 16 have a transfer box at some point. 5 have a boot box at some point. 1 has the went for professional. So that's 34 without a box (granted some current, and some were probably Sr when Dan took over and said it's 1 year). But 34 of 56 is 61% have no box on them at any point on the chart. The 16 that left for somewhere else is 28.6%. I think it's more because didn't Nicky Z go to Indiana after he graduated? I don't know if it's good or bad but it's not the 75% number. Even if we take away the 12 current players reducing the total from 56 to 44. The 16 boxes reflect a 36.6% transfer. But this is a good chart, I wish the grad transfer vs transfer had a different color, because I think the situations are totally different as to why you are leaving. It would be interesting to see other schools in the MVC for the same time period. Thanks for taking the time for putting the chart together.
Birdswin
Junior
Posts: 616
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2017 7:58 pm

Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:57 am

Thank You 222 for putting this spreadsheet together. I find this information very telling - looks like 2015-2016 was when changes in how Muller added players. Since that time, he has relied more heavily on Juco and Transfer players. More than half of his high school recruits came before this "Bright Line". Reminds me of looking at Credit Scores - 660 remains a Huge Bright Line.

Juco's and transfers should be brought in to compliment your team and add to the high school recruits - what that chart points out, is Muller has been using Jucos and Transfers are his primary source - and that pattern started prior to the contract extension, which points to a management deficiency, on multiple levels.
Redbird222
Senior
Posts: 967
Joined: Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:33 pm

Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:59 am

Redbird60451 wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:52 am
So I count 56 names on the list. 16 have a transfer box at some point. 4 have a boot box at some point. 1 has the went for professional. So that's 35 without a box (granted some current, and some were probably Sr when Dan took over and said it's 1 year). But 35 of 56 is 62% have no box on them at any point on the chart. The 16 that left for somewhere else is 28.6%. I think it's more because didn't Nicky Z go to Indiana after he graduated? I don't know if it's good or bad but it's not the 75% number. Even if we take away the 12 current players reducing the total from 56 to 44. The 16 boxes reflect a 36.6% transfer. But this is a good chart, I wish the grad transfer vs transfer had a different color, because I think the situations are totally different as to why you are leaving. It would be interesting to see other schools in the MVC for the same time period. Thanks for taking the time for putting the chart together.
Thr 75% of the players that left early were transfer. The numbers you are looking for are the two rows below

40% of Muller recruits left early (I excluded Jank recruits). This includes graduate transfers like Zeisloft, Baynyard, Hein, Hawkins & McIntosch which were all grad transfer. You exclude grad transfers the % drops to 29%
Redbird222
Senior
Posts: 967
Joined: Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:33 pm

Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:59 am

Redbird222 wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:59 am
Redbird60451 wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:52 am
So I count 56 names on the list. 16 have a transfer box at some point. 4 have a boot box at some point. 1 has the went for professional. So that's 35 without a box (granted some current, and some were probably Sr when Dan took over and said it's 1 year). But 35 of 56 is 62% have no box on them at any point on the chart. The 16 that left for somewhere else is 28.6%. I think it's more because didn't Nicky Z go to Indiana after he graduated? I don't know if it's good or bad but it's not the 75% number. Even if we take away the 12 current players reducing the total from 56 to 44. The 16 boxes reflect a 36.6% transfer. But this is a good chart, I wish the grad transfer vs transfer had a different color, because I think the situations are totally different as to why you are leaving. It would be interesting to see other schools in the MVC for the same time period. Thanks for taking the time for putting the chart together.
The 75% represents the players that left early who were transfers - not % that left early. The numbers you are looking for are the two rows below

40% of Muller recruits left early (I excluded Jank recruits). This includes graduate transfers like Zeisloft, Baynyard, Hein, Hawkins & McIntosch which were all grad transfer. You exclude grad transfers the % drops to 29%
SgtHulka
Senior
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Fri Feb 21, 2020 11:28 am

Good stuff. Thanks
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Trey_Guidry4three
Junior
Posts: 561
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Fri Feb 21, 2020 11:51 am

Morans14 wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:24 am
Trey_Guidry4three wrote:Not a good resume. And to think Lee also wanted to leave is scary. There has been no true 4 year players that are worth noting. (Not many to pick from either).
But you put Paris Lee in the category of a true 4 year player worth noting. Correct? POY and DPOY his senior year would certainly qualify in my eyes.


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Yea that's why I said it is scary to think the ONLY one worth noting almost left. Thank goodness he stayed
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ISU86
Freshman
Posts: 198
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:04 pm

Fri Feb 21, 2020 5:43 pm

not sure how to quite measure this, but I have also wondered just how much of a factor the background/continuity/quality of the assistant coaching staff plays into all of this (for example, the noted shift in recruiting focus to the southeast)

2012-13
Ford
Judson
Ward

2013-14
Ford
Ward
Yaklich

2014-15
Ford
Yaklich
Oliver

2015-16
Yaklich
Oliver
Ballard

2016-17
Yaklich
Oliver
Dollar (nine days)/Reese

2017-18
Reese
Collins
Mullins

2018-19
Reese
Mullins
Duhon

2019-20
Jones
Reese
Belcher

much like the players, I think the overall quality of Dan's staff has suffered in recent times (and not all changes/replacements were planned). Also, like the current and next recruiting class, I do think this current staff is improved.
no matter where you go ... there you are
Redbird222
Senior
Posts: 967
Joined: Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:33 pm

Fri Feb 21, 2020 6:49 pm

ISU86 wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 5:43 pm
not sure how to quite measure this, but I have also wondered just how much of a factor the background/continuity/quality of the assistant coaching staff plays into all of this (for example, the noted shift in recruiting focus to the southeast)

2012-13
Ford
Judson
Ward

2013-14
Ford
Ward
Yaklich

2014-15
Ford
Yaklich
Oliver

2015-16
Yaklich
Oliver
Ballard

2016-17
Yaklich
Oliver
Dollar (nine days)/Reese

2017-18
Reese
Collins
Mullins

2018-19
Reese
Mullins
Duhon

2019-20
Jones
Reese
Belcher

much like the players, I think the overall quality of Dan's staff has suffered in recent times (and not all changes/replacements were planned). Also, like the current and next recruiting class, I do think this current staff is improved.
I think there is a direct correlation
stats
Sophomore
Posts: 307
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 9:52 pm

Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:13 pm

I tried to figure it out, but couldn't. My question is how many players were red-shirted in their first year under Dan? How many of those players stayed around to play as a senior here?
Redbird222
Senior
Posts: 967
Joined: Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:33 pm

Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:41 pm

stats wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:13 pm
I tried to figure it out, but couldn't. My question is how many players were red-shirted in their first year under Dan? How many of those players stayed around to play as a senior here?
No redshirts from first year played 4 years afterwards

Hawkins
Hein
McIntosh
Harvey
Glassman

TBD
Ndiaye
Sissoko
The Beak
Freshman
Posts: 103
Joined: Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:13 pm

Sun Feb 23, 2020 6:36 am

Lots of interesting numbers and nuggets in this first link; it appears years studied are 2012- 2018.

"College basketball’s transfer rate is the second-highest in the NCAA among male sports, where approximately 33% of players transfer at some point in their collegiate career."
"Unstable coaching staffs tend to have more players transfer out of their university than programs that have retained the same head coach."

https://athleticdirectoru.com/articles/ ... -movement/

This story is more anecdotal:

"The last couple of years he's realized to build a team here and the climate of basketball right now is NOT that you just recruit a bunch of freshmen and grow with it."
“Over 40% of guys playing Division I basketball right now will play for at least two schools,” Pluto said. “The idea of having one guy at one school for four years is rare.”

https://www.wksu.org/post/view-pluto-wy ... d#stream/0
Redbird Alum 2004
Senior
Posts: 1157
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:45 pm

Sun Feb 23, 2020 10:26 am

I agree that he needs staff consistency. The freshman right now if Ndiaye, Reeves and Horne are solid. We seem to have a good incoming freshman class and a juco shooter. There are building blocks here. Consistency is needed. I'm the article about Madison he talked how he took Reeves and Horne under his wings and told them to listen to coach and he will turn them into good players in this conference. I would love to see Paris come back to talk to Reeves and Horne as well.
stats
Sophomore
Posts: 307
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 9:52 pm

Sun Feb 23, 2020 5:42 pm

The Beak wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 6:36 am

“Over 40% of guys playing Division I basketball right now will play for at least two schools,” Pluto said. “The idea of having one guy at one school for four years is rare.”

https://www.wksu.org/post/view-pluto-wy ... d#stream/0
I always thought when in doubt with a freshman, redshirt him. This way you replace his freshman season with his 5th year season. He is always going to be better.

Now my thought has changed. When in doubt with a freshman, don't redshirt him. The chances are we just paid for an extra year of school for this kid to step in and play somewhere else....or he just decides to graduate and get a job. Save the redshirts for the injured players.
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